Predictor

Every remaining fixture priced by the model, then the season replayed ten thousand times. Points already banked are kept; the rest is simulated. Each league is scored against its own European places and relegation shape — the two 18-team leagues have a play-off place that a simple “bottom three” would miss.

Ratings are frozen as of 2026-09-23, so a match in May is priced with today's strengths: no transfers or injuries are modelled, which makes title odds far more trustworthy than the exact gap between 14th and 15th. Cup winners' European routes and UEFA coefficient bonus places are not modelled either.

Premier Leagueprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation

• 1Arsenal77exp. pts
  now 12title 43.4%Europe 95.7%danger —Champions League90%
• 2Manchester City75.6exp. pts
  now 15title 38%Europe 93.7%danger —Champions League86%
• 3Brighton63.3exp. pts
  now 10title 7.1%Europe 68%danger 0.8%Champions League49%
• 4Liverpool59.5exp. pts
  now 9title 3.5%Europe 53.1%danger 1.3%Chasing Europe53%
• 5Manchester Utd57.7exp. pts
  now 5title 2.1%Europe 47.1%danger 2.2%Chasing Europe47%
• 6Brentford55.6exp. pts
  now 9title 1.6%Europe 38.7%danger 3.2%Chasing Europe39%
• 7Leeds United54.6exp. pts
  now 9title 1.1%Europe 35.4%danger 4.1%Chasing Europe35%
• 8Chelsea53.6exp. pts
  now 7title 0.9%Europe 31.1%danger 5.5%Chasing Europe31%
• 9Bournemouth51.8exp. pts
  now 3title 0.7%Europe 26.6%danger 7.3%Chasing Europe27%
• 10Everton50.4exp. pts
  now 9title 0.6%Europe 20.8%danger 8.6%Mid-table
• 11Nottingham47.3exp. pts
  now 5title 0.3%Europe 14.6%danger 14.2%Drop-zone risk14%
• 12Aston Villa46.9exp. pts
  now 4title 0.2%Europe 13.4%danger 16.2%Drop-zone risk16%
• 13Newcastle46.9exp. pts
  now 8title 0.2%Europe 13.3%danger 15.5%Drop-zone risk16%
• 14Sunderland46.4exp. pts
  now 4title 0.2%Europe 13.2%danger 17.1%Drop-zone risk17%
• 15Crystal Palace45.7exp. pts
  now 4title 0.1%Europe 11.2%danger 19.1%Drop-zone risk19%
• 16Fulham44.1exp. pts
  now 2title 0.1%Europe 9.1%danger 22.8%Drop-zone risk23%
• 17Hull City40.6exp. pts
  now 8title 0.1%Europe 5%danger 34.6%Fighting relegation35%
• 18Tottenham40.5exp. pts
  now 2title —Europe 4.6%danger 35%Fighting relegation35%
• 19Ipswich Town39.6exp. pts
  now 6title —Europe 3.7%danger 39.2%Fighting relegation39%
• 20Coventry City36.1exp. pts
  now 3title —Europe 1.8%danger 53.3%Fighting relegation53%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	Arsenal	12	77	43.4%	95.7%	—		Champions League90%
2	Manchester City	15	75.6	38%	93.7%	—		Champions League86%
3	Brighton	10	63.3	7.1%	68%	0.8%		Champions League49%
4	Liverpool	9	59.5	3.5%	53.1%	1.3%		Chasing Europe53%
5	Manchester Utd	5	57.7	2.1%	47.1%	2.2%		Chasing Europe47%
6	Brentford	9	55.6	1.6%	38.7%	3.2%		Chasing Europe39%
7	Leeds United	9	54.6	1.1%	35.4%	4.1%		Chasing Europe35%
8	Chelsea	7	53.6	0.9%	31.1%	5.5%		Chasing Europe31%
9	Bournemouth	3	51.8	0.7%	26.6%	7.3%		Chasing Europe27%
10	Everton	9	50.4	0.6%	20.8%	8.6%		Mid-table
11	Nottingham	5	47.3	0.3%	14.6%	14.2%		Drop-zone risk14%
12	Aston Villa	4	46.9	0.2%	13.4%	16.2%		Drop-zone risk16%
13	Newcastle	8	46.9	0.2%	13.3%	15.5%		Drop-zone risk16%
14	Sunderland	4	46.4	0.2%	13.2%	17.1%		Drop-zone risk17%
15	Crystal Palace	4	45.7	0.1%	11.2%	19.1%		Drop-zone risk19%
16	Fulham	2	44.1	0.1%	9.1%	22.8%		Drop-zone risk23%
17	Hull City	8	40.6	0.1%	5%	34.6%		Fighting relegation35%
18	Tottenham	2	40.5	—	4.6%	35%		Fighting relegation35%
19	Ipswich Town	6	39.6	—	3.7%	39.2%		Fighting relegation39%
20	Coventry City	3	36.1	—	1.8%	53.3%		Fighting relegation53%

La Ligaprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation

• 1Barcelona88.1exp. pts
  now 21title 83.3%Europe 100%danger —Champions League99%
• 2Real Madrid73.3exp. pts
  now 15title 10.5%Europe 95.9%danger —Champions League84%
• 3Atlético Madrid66.8exp. pts
  now 16title 3.4%Europe 85.9%danger 0.1%Champions League61%
• 4Real Betis63.2exp. pts
  now 16title 1.5%Europe 75.5%danger 0.5%Champions League44%
• 5Villarreal58.4exp. pts
  now 8title 0.4%Europe 60.4%danger 1.3%Chasing Europe60%
• 6Athletic Club57.3exp. pts
  now 8title 0.4%Europe 54.6%danger 2.1%Chasing Europe55%
• 7Alavés54.1exp. pts
  now 11title 0.3%Europe 42.9%danger 3.4%Chasing Europe43%
• 8Rayo Vallecano50.5exp. pts
  now 8title 0.1%Europe 28.2%danger 7.9%Chasing Europe28%
• 9Real Sociedad49.9exp. pts
  now 10title —Europe 25.3%danger 8.4%Chasing Europe25%
• 10Sevilla49.9exp. pts
  now 13title 0.1%Europe 24.9%danger 7.5%Mid-table
• 11Osasuna47.6exp. pts
  now 8title —Europe 18.3%danger 12%Drop-zone risk12%
• 12Levante46.9exp. pts
  now 5title —Europe 18.5%danger 13.9%Drop-zone risk14%
• 13Celta Vigo46.5exp. pts
  now 7title —Europe 16.6%danger 13.1%Drop-zone risk13%
• 14Dep. A Coruña45.5exp. pts
  now 10title —Europe 13.7%danger 15.1%Drop-zone risk15%
• 15Espanyol44.2exp. pts
  now 7title —Europe 11.8%danger 19.2%Drop-zone risk19%
• 16Valencia42.1exp. pts
  now 4title —Europe 8.3%danger 27.8%Fighting relegation28%
• 17Racing Sant41.8exp. pts
  now 7title —Europe 7%danger 29.6%Fighting relegation30%
• 18Elche40.8exp. pts
  now 5title —Europe 6.3%danger 31.8%Fighting relegation32%
• 19Getafe40.3exp. pts
  now 8title —Europe 5.5%danger 33.3%Fighting relegation33%
• 20Málaga31exp. pts
  now 3title —Europe 0.7%danger 73.1%Fighting relegation73%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	Barcelona	21	88.1	83.3%	100%	—		Champions League99%
2	Real Madrid	15	73.3	10.5%	95.9%	—		Champions League84%
3	Atlético Madrid	16	66.8	3.4%	85.9%	0.1%		Champions League61%
4	Real Betis	16	63.2	1.5%	75.5%	0.5%		Champions League44%
5	Villarreal	8	58.4	0.4%	60.4%	1.3%		Chasing Europe60%
6	Athletic Club	8	57.3	0.4%	54.6%	2.1%		Chasing Europe55%
7	Alavés	11	54.1	0.3%	42.9%	3.4%		Chasing Europe43%
8	Rayo Vallecano	8	50.5	0.1%	28.2%	7.9%		Chasing Europe28%
9	Real Sociedad	10	49.9	—	25.3%	8.4%		Chasing Europe25%
10	Sevilla	13	49.9	0.1%	24.9%	7.5%		Mid-table
11	Osasuna	8	47.6	—	18.3%	12%		Drop-zone risk12%
12	Levante	5	46.9	—	18.5%	13.9%		Drop-zone risk14%
13	Celta Vigo	7	46.5	—	16.6%	13.1%		Drop-zone risk13%
14	Dep. A Coruña	10	45.5	—	13.7%	15.1%		Drop-zone risk15%
15	Espanyol	7	44.2	—	11.8%	19.2%		Drop-zone risk19%
16	Valencia	4	42.1	—	8.3%	27.8%		Fighting relegation28%
17	Racing Sant	7	41.8	—	7%	29.6%		Fighting relegation30%
18	Elche	5	40.8	—	6.3%	31.8%		Fighting relegation32%
19	Getafe	8	40.3	—	5.5%	33.3%		Fighting relegation33%
20	Málaga	3	31	—	0.7%	73.1%		Fighting relegation73%

Serie Aprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation

• 1Inter80.5exp. pts
  now 13title 41.6%Europe 98.6%danger —Champions League91%
• 2Roma76.4exp. pts
  now 13title 25.3%Europe 96.1%danger —Champions League82%
• 3Juventus75.3exp. pts
  now 10title 20%Europe 96.2%danger —Champions League79%
• 4Como68.9exp. pts
  now 10title 7.5%Europe 85.5%danger 0.1%Champions League55%
• 5Napoli63.1exp. pts
  now 7title 2.4%Europe 70.1%danger 0.4%Chasing Europe70%
• 6Milan61.6exp. pts
  now 11title 2.1%Europe 64.4%danger 0.4%Chasing Europe64%
• 7Lazio56.3exp. pts
  now 13title 0.6%Europe 42.8%danger 1.4%Chasing Europe43%
• 8Atalanta51.1exp. pts
  now 6title 0.1%Europe 25%danger 5.2%Chasing Europe25%
• 9Sassuolo50.5exp. pts
  now 7title 0.2%Europe 23.8%danger 5.5%Mid-table
• 10Cagliari48.2exp. pts
  now 12title 0.1%Europe 16.1%danger 7%Mid-table
• 11Monza47.7exp. pts
  now 4title 0.1%Europe 16.7%danger 9.6%Mid-table
• 12Frosinone47.2exp. pts
  now 10title —Europe 14.8%danger 8.6%Mid-table
• 13Bologna46.3exp. pts
  now 2title —Europe 13.8%danger 11.7%Drop-zone risk12%
• 14Fiorentina44.9exp. pts
  now 4title —Europe 11%danger 14.7%Drop-zone risk15%
• 15Udinese44.7exp. pts
  now 4title —Europe 10.3%danger 14%Drop-zone risk14%
• 16Torino44exp. pts
  now 4title —Europe 9.3%danger 16.1%Drop-zone risk16%
• 17Genoa37.8exp. pts
  now 1title —Europe 3%danger 35.9%Fighting relegation36%
• 18Lecce34.9exp. pts
  now 6title —Europe 1.2%danger 48.8%Fighting relegation49%
• 19Parma32.7exp. pts
  now 4title —Europe 0.8%danger 58.2%Fighting relegation58%
• 20Venezia31.5exp. pts
  now 0title —Europe 0.7%danger 62.3%Fighting relegation62%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	Inter	13	80.5	41.6%	98.6%	—		Champions League91%
2	Roma	13	76.4	25.3%	96.1%	—		Champions League82%
3	Juventus	10	75.3	20%	96.2%	—		Champions League79%
4	Como	10	68.9	7.5%	85.5%	0.1%		Champions League55%
5	Napoli	7	63.1	2.4%	70.1%	0.4%		Chasing Europe70%
6	Milan	11	61.6	2.1%	64.4%	0.4%		Chasing Europe64%
7	Lazio	13	56.3	0.6%	42.8%	1.4%		Chasing Europe43%
8	Atalanta	6	51.1	0.1%	25%	5.2%		Chasing Europe25%
9	Sassuolo	7	50.5	0.2%	23.8%	5.5%		Mid-table
10	Cagliari	12	48.2	0.1%	16.1%	7%		Mid-table
11	Monza	4	47.7	0.1%	16.7%	9.6%		Mid-table
12	Frosinone	10	47.2	—	14.8%	8.6%		Mid-table
13	Bologna	2	46.3	—	13.8%	11.7%		Drop-zone risk12%
14	Fiorentina	4	44.9	—	11%	14.7%		Drop-zone risk15%
15	Udinese	4	44.7	—	10.3%	14%		Drop-zone risk14%
16	Torino	4	44	—	9.3%	16.1%		Drop-zone risk16%
17	Genoa	1	37.8	—	3%	35.9%		Fighting relegation36%
18	Lecce	6	34.9	—	1.2%	48.8%		Fighting relegation49%
19	Parma	4	32.7	—	0.8%	58.2%		Fighting relegation58%
20	Venezia	0	31.5	—	0.7%	62.3%		Fighting relegation62%

Bundesligaprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation play-offRelegation

• 1Bayern Munich75.1exp. pts
  now 10title 64.5%Europe 99.6%danger —Champions League96%
• 2Dortmund66.5exp. pts
  now 12title 19.8%Europe 94.6%danger 0.1%Champions League80%
• 3Leverkusen60.8exp. pts
  now 7title 7.6%Europe 86.4%danger 0.3%Champions League62%
• 4RB Leipzig56.5exp. pts
  now 6title 3%Europe 75.5%danger 0.6%Champions League43%
• 5Mainz 0553.1exp. pts
  now 7title 1.8%Europe 62.5%danger 1.8%Chasing Europe62%
• 6Freiburg50.2exp. pts
  now 10title 1.2%Europe 50.6%danger 2.9%Chasing Europe51%
• 7Stuttgart50.2exp. pts
  now 3title 0.7%Europe 50.3%danger 3.6%Chasing Europe50%
• 8Hoffenheim49.7exp. pts
  now 3title 0.7%Europe 48.8%danger 3.8%Chasing Europe49%
• 9Frankfurt44.9exp. pts
  now 5title 0.3%Europe 29.9%danger 9.4%Chasing Europe30%
• 10Augsburg42.6exp. pts
  now 7title 0.2%Europe 22.7%danger 12.9%Drop-zone risk13%
• 11Köln42.4exp. pts
  now 4title 0.1%Europe 21.8%danger 14.5%Drop-zone risk15%
• 12Werder Bremen40.9exp. pts
  now 7title 0.1%Europe 17.4%danger 17.7%Drop-zone risk18%
• 13Elversberg39.4exp. pts
  now 7title —Europe 13.8%danger 21.3%Drop-zone risk21%
• 14Schalke 0435.2exp. pts
  now 5title —Europe 6.1%danger 36%Fighting relegation36%
• 15Gladbach34.4exp. pts
  now 0title —Europe 5.5%danger 40.5%Fighting relegation41%
• 16Union Berlin34.2exp. pts
  now 1title —Europe 6%danger 43.2%Fighting relegation43%
• 17Paderborn 0733.4exp. pts
  now 4title —Europe 4.1%danger 43.8%Fighting relegation44%
• 18Hamburger SV33.2exp. pts
  now 3title —Europe 4.4%danger 47.6%Fighting relegation48%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	Bayern Munich	10	75.1	64.5%	99.6%	—		Champions League96%
2	Dortmund	12	66.5	19.8%	94.6%	0.1%		Champions League80%
3	Leverkusen	7	60.8	7.6%	86.4%	0.3%		Champions League62%
4	RB Leipzig	6	56.5	3%	75.5%	0.6%		Champions League43%
5	Mainz 05	7	53.1	1.8%	62.5%	1.8%		Chasing Europe62%
6	Freiburg	10	50.2	1.2%	50.6%	2.9%		Chasing Europe51%
7	Stuttgart	3	50.2	0.7%	50.3%	3.6%		Chasing Europe50%
8	Hoffenheim	3	49.7	0.7%	48.8%	3.8%		Chasing Europe49%
9	Frankfurt	5	44.9	0.3%	29.9%	9.4%		Chasing Europe30%
10	Augsburg	7	42.6	0.2%	22.7%	12.9%		Drop-zone risk13%
11	Köln	4	42.4	0.1%	21.8%	14.5%		Drop-zone risk15%
12	Werder Bremen	7	40.9	0.1%	17.4%	17.7%		Drop-zone risk18%
13	Elversberg	7	39.4	—	13.8%	21.3%		Drop-zone risk21%
14	Schalke 04	5	35.2	—	6.1%	36%		Fighting relegation36%
15	Gladbach	0	34.4	—	5.5%	40.5%		Fighting relegation41%
16	Union Berlin	1	34.2	—	6%	43.2%		Fighting relegation43%
17	Paderborn 07	4	33.4	—	4.1%	43.8%		Fighting relegation44%
18	Hamburger SV	3	33.2	—	4.4%	47.6%		Fighting relegation48%

Ligue 1projected final table

Champions LeagueChampions League qualifyingEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation play-offRelegation

• 1PSG66.7exp. pts
  now 8title 46.1%Europe 94.6%danger —Champions League79%
• 2Lille56.9exp. pts
  now 10title 10.6%Europe 68%danger 0.7%Chasing Europe68%
• 3Monaco56.9exp. pts
  now 13title 10.7%Europe 67%danger 0.7%Chasing Europe67%
• 4Lens56.5exp. pts
  now 4title 9.4%Europe 68.4%danger 0.5%Chasing Europe68%
• 5Lyon55.4exp. pts
  now 11title 8.9%Europe 63%danger 0.9%Chasing Europe63%
• 6Paris FC52.5exp. pts
  now 11title 4.8%Europe 49.8%danger 1.8%Chasing Europe50%
• 7Rennes50.7exp. pts
  now 10title 3.2%Europe 41.2%danger 3.5%Chasing Europe41%
• 8Toulouse48.1exp. pts
  now 5title 1.8%Europe 31.8%danger 4.9%Chasing Europe32%
• 9Marseille47.7exp. pts
  now 3title 1.7%Europe 31.3%danger 5.9%Chasing Europe31%
• 10Strasbourg46.1exp. pts
  now 7title 1%Europe 25%danger 8.2%Chasing Europe25%
• 11Brest43.2exp. pts
  now 5title 0.6%Europe 16.8%danger 12.7%Drop-zone risk13%
• 12Lorient42.3exp. pts
  now 5title 0.5%Europe 15.5%danger 15.2%Drop-zone risk15%
• 13Le Mans39.5exp. pts
  now 6title 0.3%Europe 8.9%danger 23.1%Drop-zone risk23%
• 14Auxerre39.2exp. pts
  now 6title 0.1%Europe 7.7%danger 25.2%Fighting relegation25%
• 15Nice36.7exp. pts
  now 5title 0.1%Europe 4.7%danger 33.6%Fighting relegation34%
• 16Angers35.3exp. pts
  now 7title 0.1%Europe 3.5%danger 39%Fighting relegation39%
• 17Le Havre32.4exp. pts
  now 2title —Europe 2.3%danger 52%Fighting relegation52%
• 18Troyes28.3exp. pts
  now 4title —Europe 0.6%danger 71.9%Fighting relegation72%

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	PSG	8	66.7	46.1%	94.6%	—		Champions League79%
2	Lille	10	56.9	10.6%	68%	0.7%		Chasing Europe68%
3	Monaco	13	56.9	10.7%	67%	0.7%		Chasing Europe67%
4	Lens	4	56.5	9.4%	68.4%	0.5%		Chasing Europe68%
5	Lyon	11	55.4	8.9%	63%	0.9%		Chasing Europe63%
6	Paris FC	11	52.5	4.8%	49.8%	1.8%		Chasing Europe50%
7	Rennes	10	50.7	3.2%	41.2%	3.5%		Chasing Europe41%
8	Toulouse	5	48.1	1.8%	31.8%	4.9%		Chasing Europe32%
9	Marseille	3	47.7	1.7%	31.3%	5.9%		Chasing Europe31%
10	Strasbourg	7	46.1	1%	25%	8.2%		Chasing Europe25%
11	Brest	5	43.2	0.6%	16.8%	12.7%		Drop-zone risk13%
12	Lorient	5	42.3	0.5%	15.5%	15.2%		Drop-zone risk15%
13	Le Mans	6	39.5	0.3%	8.9%	23.1%		Drop-zone risk23%
14	Auxerre	6	39.2	0.1%	7.7%	25.2%		Fighting relegation25%
15	Nice	5	36.7	0.1%	4.7%	33.6%		Fighting relegation34%
16	Angers	7	35.3	0.1%	3.5%	39%		Fighting relegation39%
17	Le Havre	2	32.4	—	2.3%	52%		Fighting relegation52%
18	Troyes	4	28.3	—	0.6%	71.9%		Fighting relegation72%