Predictorous

A football model that shows its work.

A probability and a fair price for every fixture in the big five. Every call is recorded before kickoff and graded afterwards — including the wrong ones.

Data from 2026-09-23

Anyone can publish predictions. The test is whether the stated probabilities are honest: when this model says 45%, does it happen about 45% of the time? Each row is a band of confidence — the pale bar is what we said, the solid bar is what actually happened.

30-40%n=75
said
36.8%
landed
42.7%
40-50%n=85
said
44.2%
landed
41.2%
50-60%n=56
said
54.7%
landed
57.1%
60-70%n=28
said
65.0%
landed
78.6%
70-80%n=6too thin to read
said
74.5%
landed
100.0%

Buckets are the model's stated probability for the outcome it called. A model that is confident and wrong shows up here as a solid bar far short of its pale one — which is why this is the first thing on the page rather than a methodology footnote.

This round, league by league: the model's probability for each result, the outcome it calls, its most likely scoreline, and the fair price for each result — what it is worth. Above that price there is value in it; below it there is not. We never see your book, so the comparison is yours to make.

round 6 · 10-10 → 10-12

Percentages are the model's probability; the smaller number is the fair price (1 ÷ probability) — on a phone it appears under each percentage once you switch it on above. The called outcome is shaded. Scorelines are the most likely result given that call, not a prediction of the exact score. Played fixtures stay listed until the whole round is done. Data as of 2026-09-23.